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At one point earlier in this campaign season seventy percent of likely voters said they wanted US Troops out of Iraq by the end of 2008. That led to a Ron Paul surge and the Texas congressman cashed in on voters in America souring on the war. Is Iraq improving? Even many Democrats in congress have had to begrudgingly admit that the "surge" has had an impact. And the numbers have changed, especially on the GOP side.
If this continues, what will happen to the Ron Paul campaign? Is there a magical seventy percent mark that has assisted Dr. Paul? His fundraising numbers are still very solid, but with the Mike Huckabee "Huckaboom", Paul has really had to fight to get any news generated outside of his circle of support. Huckabee pushed through the glass ceiling and now enjoys mainstream media coverage and has yet to look back, he's everywhere on news channels an has the rest of the GOP field playing catch up. How can Paul do the same? *** He has really worked the American voters anger and lack of satisfaction with the Bush Administration and how they failed to communicate what exactly is going on in Iraq. But with the surge working Rasmussen Reports (A GOP polling firm) has this: "Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Democrats favor either an immediate withdrawal of troops or a firm timetable for withdrawal. Only 27% of Republicans share those views. A separate survey found a similar gap on the overall War on Terror --70% of Republicans say the United States is winning. Only 22% of Democrats agree." So now we are way under the seventy percent mark for dissatisfied war watchers. But even with the optimism on Iraq, a full fifty-three percent (53%) of likely voters want U.S. combat troops out of Iraq by the end of 2008. That number has been pretty solid for the last few weeks, but it may not be enough for Paul, especially with only twenty-seven percent on the GOP side favoring Paul's position. *** There is some good news. Paul is now nearing double-digit support for obtaining the office of the president as eight percent (8%) of "Likely Republican Primary" voters nationwide. I know that doesn't sound like much, but John McCain and Fred Thompson are only at eleven percent in that same poll. Thompson will certainly be gone soon and McCain may follow as well. Still, Paul's struggles to break the "glass ceiling" of mainstream coverage is unchanging. Certainly he gets on a few shows on cable and some of the Sunday morning shows on the networks but he has really yet to break through and cause passive viewers to actually pay attention. Huckabee has shown it can be done, even with single digit support. *** He needs an event that makes America sit up and take notice. The "money bomb" was a great idea and the money can be put to good use in New Hampshire but did little for coverage and I'm guessing this new "Ron Paul blimp" will be lampooned more than heralded as some sort of help to the campaign. It's time for the campaign to move past the gimmicks and break that glass ceiling with real campaigning and better debate performances. Perhaps then he can break through and battle Huckabee, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani.
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