Political pundits, political scholars, politicians and other interested people presently are looking toward the Democratic National Convention, August 25 - 28, the Republican National Convention, September 1 - 4, the Quadrennial Elections, November 4, 2008 and Inauguration Day, January 20, 2009. There are some who also think about more distant days, far fewer in number though those people doubtless are.
Shifting Populace, Shifting Political Clout
Before the ensuing 111th Congress has adjourned the 2010 Census will have begun. Its results significantly might impact the 2012 Presidential and House of Representatives elections and such elections in subsequent years.
How come? The population of our country regionally is shifting. How much and how soon is the subject of numerous studies and, hence, numerous predictions. However, the generalization is obvious that the so-called Sunbelt is growing while New England, the Middle Atlantic, the Midwest and the North Central States, at least comparatively speaking, are either holding or shrinking. Of course, the census-verified population of a State does not affect its Constitutional entitlement to two United States but it surely affects its electorate vote and the number of its Members of the House of Representatives.
Earlier this year two political demographic firms with pertinent expertise, Election Data Services and Polidata, projected gains and losses in electoral votes, which translate into House of Representatives seats. In view of the fact the number of House seats plus two, for Senatorial seats, equals the total electoral vote of a State the gains or losses per State are one and the same. Projected gains were Texas, 4+ to 36 House seats; Florida, 2+ to 27; Arizona, 2+ to 10; North Carolina, 1+ to 14; South Carolina, 1+ to 7; Georgia, 1+ to 14; Utah, 1+ to 4; Nevada, 1+ to 4; Oregon, 1+ to 6. Projected losses were New York, -2 to 27; Ohio, -2 to 16; Massachusetts, -1 to 9; New Jersey, -1 to 12; Pennsylvania, -1 to 18; Michigan, -1 to 14; Illinois, -1 to 18; Minnesota, -1 to 7; Missouri, -1 to 8; Louisiana, -1 to 6; (surprise?) California, -1 to 52.
Since then growth in many of the States projected to gain has slowed relatively speaking so the foregoing figures here and there may be off. Yet there seems to be little serious doubt that there will be considerable realignment.
To a very considerable extent the party in power influences - indeed, often controls - redistricting. With apologies to Elbridge Gerry, after whom “gerrymander” was named (and not as a compliment), clever and sweeping partisan redistricting seldom suffers a legal setback.
Let us consider, then, the present political alignment of governors and legislatures in some of the twenty-one States likely to be affected. In so doing we bear in mind that 2008 elections could alter the powers-that-be in North Carolina and Utah; 2009 elections could do so in New Jersey; the remainder could do so in 2010. More often than not the betting is otherwise. Those in power in 2011 will dominate the redistricting process.
Gubernatorial elections this year will materialize in Missouri, North Carolina and Utah, next year in New Jersey. 2010 will see them in the remaining States likely to gain or lose, 2011 in Louisiana. It’s premature for anything but rank speculation, sometimes dignified as “long-term planning.” However, foretelling the future can be fun. Upon that predicate what might one anticipate? Democrats would have the upper hand in gaining seats in North Carolina and Oregon; Republicans in Texas, Florida, South Carolina, Georgia and Utah; uncertainty (due to split control between Governor and Legislature) in Arizona and Nevada. Democrats would have the stronger hand in eliminating Republican seats in Massachusetts, New Jersey, Illinois and Iowa; uncertainty due to such split in New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Louisiana and California. Of course, migrations into some of the plus States might be more Democratic than Republican, skewing the odds.
Think of all the papers academic can write, all the polls pollsters can create, all the contingencies politicians can create. Maybe it’s less taxing of the mind to limit conjecture, prediction and speculation to the two Conventions and November 4.
Marion Edwyn Harrison is President of, and Counsel to, the Free Congress Foundation.
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